AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Breaks $4 as Forecasts Continue to Push Market Higher

Corn futures are showing 8 to 12 cent gains in the nearby contracts on Friday. The front month continuation chart broke $4 for the first time since last May, with July trying to hold at midday. Weather forecasts continue to show rains for much of the Midwest into next week. USDA reported a private export sale of 113,000 MT of corn for 18/19 delivery to Mexico this morning. As of last Thursday, USDA showed corn exports at 65% of their full year projection, just 1% behind normal. Total commitments, however, are 12% back of the 5-year average at 81% of the USDA projection, as unshipped sales are lagging.

Jul 19 Corn is at $4.01 3/4, up 12 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.10 1/2, up 12 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.18 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.27 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Higher on Spillover from the Grains

Soybean futures are up 8 to 8 1/2 cents in the front months at midday. July soy meal is $2.10/ton higher, with soybean oil 34 points in the green. Support is coming in the way of spillover from the grains. As of May 16, US soybean shipments were just 70% of the USDA full year projection, with the average at 88%. When adding in the unshipped sales, they are 95% of that projection, vs. the 98% pace for this time of year. There were rumors overnight that the White House was somehow going to change existing crop insurance contracts to enhance the payout for prevented planting.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.30, up 8 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.36 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.43 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $8.56 1/4, up 8 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $299.30, up $2.10

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.12, up $0.34

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Showing Double Digit Gains at Midday

Wheat futures are positng double digit gains on Friday, ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. The markets will be closed for the Monday session. Accumulated wheat exports as of May 16 are 91% of USDA’s forecast total, with the normal pace at 96%. Typically Census data runs ahead of the weeks export numbers. Planalytics raised its forecast for average US winter wheat yield to 52 bushels per acre from 51.1 bpa. Private forecasters have been raising their Russian crop estimates to 81-83 MMT, with ProZerno the latest at 82.3 MMT, vs the country’s ag ministry of 75 MMT.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.86 3/4, up 16 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.40 1/2, up 15 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.48 3/4, up 14 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Mostly Lower Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

Live cattle futures are mostly lower on Friday, with June up 20 cents. Feeder cattle futures are also in the red in most contracts, as the new front month August is up 12.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.54 to $133.70 on May 22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday morning. Choice boxes were up 71 cents at $221.50 with Select boxes $1.95 higher @ $208.48. USDA has this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 477,000 head through Thursday. Cash trade so far this week has been seen at $115 in the South and $115-116 in the North. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected on average to show April placements up 13.5% from a year ago, with marketings in that month 6.6% higher. May 1 cattle on feed is seen up 2.9% yr/yr.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $111.000, up $0.200,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $107.775, down $0.375,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $107.675, down $0.375,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.150, up $0.125

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.800, down $0.200

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.225, down $0.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Showing Sharp Losses at Midday

Lean Hog futures are nearing limit losses in the front months on Friday. According to state media, China is progressing in finding an ASF vaccine, as they start working on clinical trials. There is not time table as of yet. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $84.36 on May 22. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 90 cents at $83.52 on Friday morning. The butt was the only primal reported lower. The national average base hog was down a sharp $2.52 on Friday, at an average weighted price of $77.96. Estimated FI hog slaughter is 1.882 million head through Thursday. That was 37,000 head above the previous week and 53,000 above the same week last year.

Jun 19 Hogs are at $86.450, down $2.975,

Jul 19 Hogs are at $88.075, down $2.875

Aug 19 Hogs are at $89.775, down $2.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Higher at Midday

Cotton futures are trading 79 to 103 points higher in most contracts on Friday, with a little help from the outside markets. The US dollar index is down 275 points at midday, with crude oil back up 40 cents/barrel. USDA data shows cotton export shipments at 70% of USDA’s projected total, with the average pace at 78%. Including the unshipped sales, total commitments are 107% of that projection, with the average pace at 101%. The Cotlook A index for May 23 was down 55 points from the previous day to 77.75 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.37 cents/lb, down 14 points from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 68.45, up 97 points,

Dec 19 Cotton is at 67.63, up 80 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 68.350, up 79 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com